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Cascade Effects: 13 Days in September « Rogue Politics

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Cascade Effects: 13 Days in September

Laughing Wolf has a post up on cascade effects, you need to read it, and I’ll say here that I agree with him completely

BLACKFIVE: Cascade Effects

No, I’m not talking physics, but something that can make basic physics seem easy. It is something we see every day in the corporate, academic, and military worlds and it can have profound effects on people and institutions. Let’s take a hypothetical look at a situation.

You are in a telecon, with people scattered around the country. Leading the telecon is a manager that is known to be ambitious, somewhat unscrupulous, well-connected, and not terribly connected to reality in terms of consumer wants, needs, and buying habits. He has a plan to advance sales (and market share), and is somewhere between announcing it and trying to sell it to other managers and offices. To his mind, the plan is a slam-dunk that no one of any intelligence can not see as a slam-dunk.

Problem is, none of the other managers and offices were consulted. They were told a plan was in work, but none were truly brought in to the development process. Marketing research had been asked to provide specific data sets and analysis of those sets, but that was all. This fact, but not the reasons behind it, are known to those taking part in the discussion. There are some other considerations in play, but this is a hypothetical.

Mr. Manager launches into his pitch, and is asked a question by the manager for Northeastern sales, who is from and residing in Maine. Mr. Manager is a touch thin-skinned (to be polite), and so answers the question with a retort rather than an answer, using a phrase common in the Southwest where he is from. That phrase has the meaning there of “shut up the answer is coming” but has a much stronger meaning in Maine.

Out of the almost infinite range of possibilities, we really have three probable responses that are going to take place. First, in the ideal world, the Maine rep will sit back, be a professional, and objectively analyze what is to come before making any decisions or even speaking again. Second, the Maine rep is going to respond immediately, but both sides will call a truce and get information and facts out, though the process will not be fun for anyone. Third, Maine will respond and Mr. Manager will take it personally, and things will go downhill fast.

Cascade effects.

– See more at: http://www.blackfive.net/main/2013/08/cascade-effects.html#sthash.O9HwZQ8W.dpuf

I will only add his penultimate sentence here.

I will also remind you of a truism (that is true) in regards war and CBN war: we are all hostage to the least stable person involved.

And that is the problem, what happens when a Tomahawk lands on the wrong target. say a Russian naval vessel.

I know that I’m older than most of you and have memories of times you do not. My thinking is increasingly on those 13 days in October of 1962, when Khrushchev had decided that Kennedy was a weak president, and had gone ahead and emplaced intermediate range ballistic missiles in Cuba. Because Kennedy was wise enough to leave a path open, and the Soviet Union was a closed society, we managed to avoid destroying the world but, all accounts agree that it was very close.

But the weapons in Cuba were under direct Soviet control. What would have happened if a shaky Cuban officer had fired one of them.

In some ways, I suspect it’s not fair to Obama, when he ran for President, I’m quite sure that he never gave global thermonuclear war a thought. After all Reagan had ended that threat for all time, so the pressure was off.

Yet here we are, old spectres back from the grave to haunt us. World peace depends on not knocking the chocks out, on purpose or by accident, in an arena where the players have no good means of talking to each other, and/or may or not be completely rational. In addition they are in the middle of a civil war.

If it fits your beliefs, it is a very good time for prayer

[Update. I note that Obama has said he will consult with Congress before acting. That is very good news. Hopefully Congress will do the right thing.]

Authored By nebraskaenergyobserver

By NEO See The Original Post Here

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