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What To Expect Between Now And Election Day

 With just under a week to go until the election, I think it’s a good time to assess where we are and what to expect.Caveat: This analysis does not figure in possible unexpected ‘black swan’ events! As we’ve seen, literally anything can happen!As …

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Why Michael Grimm Shouldn’t Resign

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Congressman Michael Grimm (R-NY), the lone GOP representative in the New York City area (Staten Island) has announced that he will resign effective Jan. 5, two weeks after he pleaded guilty to felony tax evasion.

What Grimm actually did was to under-report his employees’ wages while he was owner of the Manhattan restaurant Healthalicious.

Grimm’s decision was apparently made after a conversation with Speaker John Boehner.

I think this was a huge mistake on Grimm’s part.Instead of caving, he should have looked Boehner in the eye and told him, ‘I’ll resign right after Charlie Rangel does.’

Why should he disenfranchise his constituents or be held to a higher standard than Charlie Rangel?

Tax evasion is a crime, no doubt. But if you compare what Michael Grimm did to what Charlie Rangel got away with, Rep. Grimm would have been far better off not pleading guilty and taking his chances with the House.

If nothing else, that would have pointed out, yet again, that Democrats, particularly black Democrats are held to far different standards than Republicans by their peers and especially by the media.

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The Beginning – GOP Underdog Wins Seat In District Obama Carried Twice

Florida’s 13th District in Pinellas County is the epitome of what Democrats like to call ‘purple’. While the long time congressman was CW Young, a very non-Tea Party sorta Left-leaning Republican, the district itself had gone for Barack Obama twice, 52…

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The Beginning – GOP Underdog Wins Seat In District Obama Carried Twice

Florida’s 13th District in Pinellas County is the epitome of what Democrats like to call ‘purple’. While the long time congressman was CW Young, a very non-Tea Party sorta Left-leaning Republican, the district itself had gone for Barack Obama twice, 52…

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Will Democrats Lose The Senate? What The Analysts Forget To Figure In

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Sean Trende is the senior elections analyst for the popular site RealClearPolitics, and a fairly smart guy when it comes to forecasting and analyzing elections and things political.

He has an interesting piece up that caught my eye today entitled,How Likely Are Democrats to Lose the Senate?

In it, he goes through a meticulous mathematical analysis based generating a large number of random values within prescribed limits in order to the likelihood of a Democrats losing the senate, and it really is an impressive piece of figuring,based on models used by Nate Silver at FiveThirtyEight,another gifted analyst.

His end conclusion? :

With all of that said, this is a very, very challenging map for Democrats. As things presently stand, the map probably makes them underdogs to hold the Senate. Barring some sort of change in the national environment or meltdown in the Republican nominations process — neither of which is impossible — Democrats are likely in for a very long night on Nov. 4.

However, there is another factor that he and most other political analysts ignore that makes this kind of speculation pretty moot. He doesn’t mention that In two straight elections, (2010 and 2012) President Obama was able to get away with massive voter fraud,which included using the Justice Department to suppress the active duty military vote. Here are a few factoids from 2012 alone to ponder:

*In 59 voting districts in the Philadelphia region, Obama received 100% of the votes with not even a single vote recorded for Romney. That’s a mathematical and statistical impossibility.

Barack Obama defeated Mitt Romney by 166,214 votes in Ohio in 2012, out of 5,489,028 votes cast. So Obama’s victory margin was just 3 percent, 50 to 47 over Romney. In Ohio, an estimated 1 in 5 ‘voters’ shouldn’t be on the rolls at all, because they’re deceased, felons or have multiple registered in other states (an estimated 1.8 million dead people and nearly 3 million who have registered to vote in multiple states). When Ohio Secretary of State Jon Husted sought permission from U.S. Attorney General Eric Holder to clean up the rolls in a Feb. 10th letter, Holder never even bothered to reply after multiple attempts.

Not surprisingly, voter fraud in Ohio is already known to have occurred in 2008 and 2012, and at least 3 Cincinnati poll workers have already been convicted of voter fraud in the 2012 elections.

In North Carolina, the Obama Campaign was directly implicated in major voter fraud.

Similar story in Philadelphia, where again President Obama got a suspiciously high turnout and vote tally in many locations.

It’s also a matter of record that President Obama won in every state that did not require a Photo ID to vote and lost in all but four state that did, and three of them (Michigan, New Hampshire, and Hawaii) were fairly Blue states anyway, and in the other, Florida, there were also reports of voter fraud that are difficult to assess because the Justice Department refused to investigate a single case of voter fraud nation wide. The DOJ is now attacking the voter ID laws in at least 4 Red states I can think of offhand,including Texas.

And if you think voter fraud doesn’t affect senate elections, ask Senator Franken.

While President Obama is not running in 2014, it’s a reasonable assumption that he will intervene again to the degree possible to ensure the continuation of his agenda and to fend off the very real threat of impeachment.

Also, it’s worth noting that Washington, California, Nevada, Utah, Colorado, New Mexico, Illinois, Maryland,, DC, Connecticut, ,Vermont and Puerto Rico have all passed laws allowing illegal aliens driver’s licenses, which means they also automatically get voter registration documents. Such laws are pending in Hawaii, Pennsylvania, Iowa, Indiana, Massachusetts, New York and New Jersey. Voter fraud in California and in Colorado involving illegal aliens and absentee ballots is already a documented fact.

In some of these states, especially places like California where there is also no voter ID requirement and the existing Democrat state government winks at voter fraud that favors Democrats, you are unlikely to see a Republican senator elected.

Does this mean that the Democrats will hold on to the Senate? Not necessarily. But it certainly means that any analysis that doesn’t figure democrat voter fraud in is inherently flawed, unfortunately.

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Going Democrat-Lite will make GOP a permanent minority

 My latest is up at The Washington Examiner. Here’s a slice:Democrats smirk that the muscle of the Hispanic vote is going to make them a permanent majority and make the Republicans extinct, while much of the GOP consultant class pontificates that …

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Fear And Loathing – The RINOs Versus The Lions

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Strange days indeed, when Republicans eat their own over something that seems to be a no brainer – defunding the deeply unpopular ObamaCare and avoiding a national trainwreck.

The GOP establishment, which seems to have difficulty finding its behind with both hands is facing mounting discontent over President Obama’s signature achievement. In fact, it’s this president’s legacy, if you don’t count unprecedented debt, Benghazi, Syria, Fast and Furious, lavish vacations, IRS-gate and a slightly improved golf score.

But for most Americans, who now have taken ex-Speaker Nancy Pelosi’s advice and are finding out what’s actually in ObamaCare now that the bill’s passed and the legislation is taking effect, it’s a nightmare. The most conservative estimates are that ObamaCare will increase healthcare costs for an average family of four by $7,450 between 2014 and 2022..if you can manage to see a doctor in anything like a timely manner.

And those figures do not account for the additional costs incurred if the president gets his way and legalizes 11 million plus illegal migrants, virtually all of whom will qualify for the taxpayer funded subsidies.

Even President Obama’s allies the unions are jumping ship on ObamaCare at this point.

When conservative Republicans in the House and in the Senate actually took a look at the poll numbers and spoke to their constituents, it seemed like a no brainer that with President Obama pushing for yet another expansion on his credit card to raise the debt ceiling, this would be an incredible time to own this issue and connect with the American public by funding the government but defunding ObamaCare.

When the GOP establishment proved reluctant, the conservatives in the House and Senators like Utah’s Mike Lee and Texan Ted Cruz led the charge to mobilize conservatives. They got well over a million signatures on an online petition and defied expectations by succeeding in getting a budget through that defunds ObamaCare.

And that when the RINO crap hit the fan.

The bill has to go to the Senate, where the Democrats will need to get 60 votes for cloture in order to end debate so Democrat majority leader Harry Reid can pass a new budget that funds ObamaCare by a simple majority and send it back to the House. If Reid
can’t get cloture, the budget bill stays in the Senate and forces Reid and the Democrats to publicly own both ObamaCare and the onus for shutting the government down. Senator Cruz explains this admirably to FOX News commentator Chris Wallace here:

Guess who Reid’s allies are in getting cloture?

None other than Arizona RINO John McCain, his sidekick Lindsay Graham and the rest of the RINOs on the so-called Gang of Eight. And they’re not limiting themselves to merely disagreeing with Cruz and conservatives. They’re trying to destroy them politically.

As Chris Wallace revealed, the RINOs actually sent him opposition research on Cruz prior to his interview with Cruz on his Sunday show, which Wallace, being an actual journalist refused to use or reveal where it came from. And as Tammy Bruce correctly surmises, if they’re sending it to Chris Wallace, they’re sending it to everyone.:

“This has been one of the strangest weeks I’ve ever had in Washington. As soon as we listed Ted Cruz as our guest this week, I got unsolicited research and questions, not from Democrats, but from top Republicans to hammer Cruz. Why are Republicans so angry at Ted Cruz?”

Well, for one thing, it’s not all Republicans, but the RINO faction led by John McCain. They loathe Cruz, Rand Paul, Mike Lee, Ron Johnson and others from the Tea Party class of 2010 because they’re conservatives first rather than Republicans, and came to Washington to govern and try to take back the country rather than going along with the Old Boy network and business as usual. Like the members of the House, they haven’t been in Washington long enough to become insulated within the DC bubble from the people that sent them there, and they still retain the principles they ran on.

Worst of all, they refuse to show deference to their ‘betters’, carpet chewers and sell outs like McCain.

ObamaCare is a particular sore spot with the RINOs because the waiver Obama gave Congress applies to the RINOs and their staffs, and they damn well don’t want to lose it because of what McCain famously called ‘wacko birds’. So they’re willing to break Ronald Reagan’s 11th commandment in spades and provide oppo research to damage fellow Republicans.

Sarah Palin, as usual has the right of it. She demands that Wallace reveal which Republicans sent him the material intended to damage Senator Ted Cruz (h/t The Noisy Room):

@FoxNewsSunday Keep it TRULY fair & balanced. Release the GOP names encouraging you to trash @SenTedCruz. No more anonymous sources.

1,139 Retweets 295 favorites

As I mentioned previously, defunding both the mandatory and discretionary funding for ObamaCare is definitely possible. Congress does exactly that with the Hyde Amendment, which prevents funds going to MedicAid from paying for abortions with exceptions for incest and rape. It’s done via a rider that is attached to the annual appropriations bill for the Department of Health and Human Services and has passed every year since 1976.

The RINOs, short sighted as usual, would rather not make waves.Losing elections has taught the Stupid Party nothing, although Cruz and his fellow lions appear to have learned something.

At the very least, this would put President Obama and Harry Reid in the uncomfortable position of having to whip their fellow Democrats into line to support shutting down the government to save a piece of legislation the vast majority of American hate…with the 2014 midterms coming on. The results of this might end up being surprising.

On the other hand, we have, apparently, a contingent within the GOP who have no allegiance to small r republican principles, or really, any principles whatsoever aside from getting re-elected again. Something is going to have to give, and it may just be the Republican Party.

That sharp, cracking sound you hear is the political borders re-aligning, and it may just be the start of the GOP establishment going the way of the Whigs.

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