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Getting an Election So Wrong: The American Media and Pollsters in 2016

“After projecting a relatively easy victory for Hillary Clinton with all the certainty of a calculus solution, news outlets like The New York Times, The Huffington Post and the major networks scrambled to provide candid answers.”[1] The dynamics likely went beyond even candid answers from the media, with major implications for how much reliance Americans should place on their media-establishment for political information.


The full essay is at “Getting an Election So Wrong.”


1. Jim Rutenberg, “News Outlets Wonder Where the Predictions Went Wrong,” The New York Times, November 9, 2016.

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Kellyanne Conway becomes First Woman to Win Presidency!

Eventually, I’ll have something more to say about the election but, I simply didn’t believe Trump had much chance, and so I didn’t have my thoughts ordered. In fact, 2012 rather demoralized me, more than I knew, and nothing since has lifted that gloom. Your mileage may differ, but I bet I’m not alone. Meantime, […]

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Tales Final Prediction – 2016

The presidential race is too close to call, but I can make this prediction:  Whichever candidate is ahead in the RCP averages at the close of Friday night will be the winner of the presidential election…and furthermore I predict you can add two …

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The Real Drivers in this Election

Bookworm posted yesterday about how polarized this election has become. It’s something we’ve all noticed, although most of us haven’t thought about it, or how we got here. Here’s some of it. A Progressive friend is relentlessly pushing “Trump is awful” stories on me. I, a conservative, invariably counter by pointing out that Hillary’s list of […]

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I Hear There’s Going to be a Debate…

tonight. Will I watch? Perhaps. Will I change my mind? Unlikely. Still, if you’re undecided you should watch, and carefully. Part of the reason I’m unexcited are the candidates. Yes, one is worse, maybe much worse than the other. But to be honest, my vote doesn’t matter a damn. If Nebraska three went for anybody […]

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How The Presidential Race Stands On The Day Of The Debate

Using the data from Real Clear Politics, Nate Silver’s 538, Larry Sabato’s Crystal Ball and Maxim Lott and John Stossel’s Election Betting Odds Site, the Tales will show how the presidential race between Hillary Clinton and Donald Trump stands today, S… . . . → Read More: How The Presidential Race Stands On The Day Of The Debate

You Will Know The Loser When These Words Are Uttered

One does not even have to be following the presidential race to know when the race is over and who will win, or better yet, who has lost the race.  All one has to do is listen closely for certain words that are said, because I promise you, except …

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New Polls: Black And Hispanic Voters Are Turning From Clinton To Trump

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According to new polls, Donald Trump is up to 20% among black voters, and rising. And among Hispanic voters, a very diverse group Trump is actually exceeding Romney, especially in key battle ground states:

In some places, Trump is actually outperforming Romney. In Nevada, for example, President Obama ran up a 47-point margin of victory among Hispanic voters in 2012, according to exit polls, defeating Romney 71 percent to 24 percent. A recent Marist poll in the state for NBC News and The Wall Street Journal showed Democratic nominee Hillary Clinton leading among Hispanics, but by the smaller margin of 35 points, 65 percent to 30 percent.

A series of Univision polls earlier this month surveying Hispanic voters in four battleground states — Arizona, Colorado, Florida and Nevada — also put Trump in the same ballpark as Romney four years ago. Clinton’s lead over Trump among Hispanics in Colorado was smaller than Obama’s margin in that state in 2012.

A Bloomberg Politics “poll decoder” on Tuesday averaged several national surveys and found Clinton leading among Hispanics by 38 points. But Obama won the group by six points more in 2012, according to exit polls.

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Actually, I think both these numbers for black and Latino numbers supporting Trump are understated. People in many of these communities might say one thing to pollsters and their peers just to go along to get along, but for a surprising number, what happens inside the voting booth is going to be quite different. None of this will be any surprise to people who have actually attended his Yu-uge rallies and seen the diversity of the people whom attend them.

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The reason for that is obvious. Trump is talking bread and butter issues to the communities that have been hardest hit by Obama’s policies. He’s talking jobs to people that desperately need them. He’s talking ending illegal migration to people that have to live with the results of increased housing costs, lower wages and diminished prospects. He’s talking school choice to people desperate to get their kids out of dysfunctional public schools and better law enforcement to people that have to live with the reality of crack houses, gangs flourishing in their neighborhoods and the ever present danger of their children being murdered as collateral damage in street wars.

What’s even more important is that he’s going to their neighborhoods and talking directly to these people, not just issuing policy papers and statements. Mitt Romney had the baggage of his LDS faith, an issue for some Catholics and Evangelicals. But what I think really cut his numbers down among blacks and Latinos was that with rare exceptions he ignored them. There were few if any campaign offices in minority neighborhoods, little phone banking or canvassing and definitely very few if any rallies or campaign events,let alone poll watchers. That’s why in places like detroit and Philadelphia you had precincts with 120% turnout and not a single recorded Romney vote.

Trump is doing exactly the opposite, and it’s going to show up to a surprising degree on election day.

Fun fact: there’s an organized campaign to get bigoted Trump hater Jorge Ramos removed from his slot as a news anchor at UniVison. And while Brent Bozell is heading it, the campaign is being driven by Latino journalists and public figures.

Whore Hay won’t be leaving, of course but the very fact that his nonsense is being increasingly recognized is unprecedented.

The times, they are a’changing.

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Absent A Major Event – Clinton Wins 30 States In An Electoral Landslide

The Tales, following it’s being eerily uncanny in it’s accuracy of predicting the 2014 Midterm elections [House, Senate and Governors], will now put it’s reputation on the line in predicting the 2016 Presidential election.  In making this predicti…

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Absent A Major Event – Clinton Wins 30 States In An Electoral Landslide

The Tales, following it’s being eerily uncanny in it’s accuracy of predicting the 2014 Midterm elections [House, Senate and Governors], will now put it’s reputation on the line in predicting the 2016 Presidential election.  In making this predicti…

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Spin Cycle

As always, a heaping helping of truth.   This is the truth, whatever one thinks about Donald Trump.

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Trump Bounce: 4 points – Race Tied

Going into the convention on Monday July 18, 2016 here are the poll numbers on Monday morning from Real Clear Politics:So, from Real Clear Politics, Donald Trump polled at 40.6 and behind Clinton by 3.2, with Clinton up by 45 on the electoral as the we…

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Progressivism Is a Long-Term Threat to the Rule of Law

Many know how much I dislike Donald Trump. It predates the 2016 campaign. He strikes me as an opportunist who plays the system, without ethics, or morals, and as a blowhard, with very few redeeming social qualities. I wouldn’t care to even have a beer with him, let alone any closer association. Nevertheless, I may […]

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Most Troubling Numbers For Trump From The ABC/Washington Post Poll

Hat/Tip: Guy P Benson from Townhall.comThe latest batch of polls have just come out and they all show the same thing-a close but steady advantage of about 3-7 points for Hillary Clinton over Donald Trump.   In the ABC News/Wash…

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Solution For GOP Primaries To Prevent Future Disastrous Nominee

Some Republicans are wondering how we got to this point where Donald Trump, many think the least electable of all the candidates, has become the GOP presumptive nominee. With so many legitimate viable candidates in the early states, close to doubl…

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And the last Word, for our British Friends and Cousins.

This royal throne of kings, this sceptred isle, This earth of majesty, this seat of Mars, This other Eden, demi-paradise, This fortress built by Nature for herself Against infection and the hand of war, This happy breed of men, this little world, This precious stone set in the silver sea, Which serves it in the […]

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A Poll Is Worth A Thousand Headaches

I just posted the following three polls on Face Book that are so devastating in their meaning for one candidate [at the presidential level] and for one political Party [at the down ballot level], I will post here with no comment.  By the way, that…

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Brexit

So in a few days, you Brits will decide whether to remain a part of the European Union. In a way, it’s none of our business, but like our elections make a difference to you, this matters to us as well. I’m not about to tell you how to vote, that’s no more my place […]

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Why the Roman empire worked – and the EU empire doesn’t

I found this very interesting: The principle of countries working harmoniously together is wholly admirable. Why, then, has the European Union become such a disaster area? The success of the Roman empire may offer a clue. Romans won that empire almost entirely by military might. But they could not have maintained it that way: for some […]

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Lies, Damned Lies, and Statistics

There’s an excellent article over at First Things this month. Nothing at all unusual about that, of course, but this one speaks to a fair number of our problems. The problem with ­science is that so much of it simply isn’t. Last summer, the Open Science Collaboration announced that it had tried to replicate one […]

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